Analysis of trend



According to the business community nickel price monitoring, nickel prices rose slightly this week. As of November 4, spot nickel quote 195,500 yuan/ton, up 4.99% compared to the beginning of the week, 35.47% up year on year.

Nickel weekly fluctuation chart



According to the weekly rise and fall chart shows that in the past 12 weeks, the nickel price rose 4, fell 7 and was 1 flat, and the recent nickel price is still a wide fluctuating trend

Nickel industry chain
LME nickel inventories



LME nickel stocks stood at 51,432 tonnes as of November 3, down 156 tonnes from the previous day. LME nickel stocks fell 360 tonnes, or 0.7 per cent, in the latest month.



On the macro side, the Fed is scheduled to raise rates by 75bp, Powell indicated that the pace of rate hike may slow down, but the interest rate peak will be higher, and the interest rate will stay high for a longer time, slightly hawkish, weakening risk appetite. The Bank of England duly raised interest rates by 75 basis points, the most in 33 years, stressing that the peak rate will be lower than the market expected; In October, the ISM non-manufacturing sector in the United States hit its lowest level since May 2020, in line with the downturn in manufacturing.



On the supply side, the rainy season has arrived in the Philippines, and the supply of nickel ore at the mine end has entered a tightening stage. Mine end cost support under the nickel iron plant quote firm, the recent price focus continues to move up. The government plans to announce a nickel export tax in the third quarter of this year, but has yet to do so. However, the news resurfaced last week. It is understood that the imposition of nickel pig iron (NPI) and nickel iron tax is a matter of time. If the export tax is implemented, Chinese stainless steel mills will have to spend more money on raw materials. If a 10% export tax is imposed on current NPI prices, the cost of 304 stainless steel made in China will increase by $152 per ton.



Demand, nickel prices continue to high, pure nickel downstream acceptance degree is limited, traders continue to reduce spot premium, but the transaction is general. Downstream stainless steel production increased and new energy demand is still strong, nickel market supply and demand is strong.



To sum up, on the basic level, the overall nickel industry chain is running strongly, the output of the stainless steel industry increases the demand for nickel, and the raw material supply side is disturbed by the cost support. However, the PMI data of the domestic manufacturing industry is weak, the repair pace is disturbed by the epidemic, and the import data of stainless steel are all weak. Nickel price is expected to maintain a wide - term shock trend.